FW: 2009 Hurricane Season Predictions

[Evans F. Mitchell; KD4EFM / AFA4TH / WQFK-894]

Subject: 2009 Hurricane Season Predictions



Below is the latest predictions from Dr. Gray for the 2009 Hurricane
season. Keep in mind, there will be a couple of minor updates throughout
next year leading into the 2009 Hurricane Season.  As you can see at the
bottom, Dr. Gray predictions accuracy for the 2008 Hurricane Season was
either conservative or dead on the money. 

 


ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2009 Forecast Parameter
and 1950-2000 

Climatology (in parentheses) 

10 December 2008 

Forecast for 2009 


Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 

14 


Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 

70 


Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 

7 


Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 

30 


Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 

3 


Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0) 

7 


Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 

125 


Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 

135 

 

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL
ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS: 

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 63% (average for last century is 52%) 

 

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 39% (average for last
century is 31%) 

 

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38%
(average for last century is 30%) 

 

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean 

 

Information obtained through November 2008 indicates that the 2009
Atlantic hurricane season will be somewhat more active than the average
1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2009 will have about 7 hurricanes
(average is 5.9), 14 named storms (average is 9.6), 70 named storm days
(average is 49.1), 30 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense
(Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane
days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall
is estimated to be about 120 percent of the long-period average. We
expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2009 to be
about 135 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on a
new extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that
utilizes 58 years of past data. The influences of El Niño conditions are
implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a
specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We currently do not expect to see
El Niño conditions during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

 


2008 

7 Dec. 2007 

Update 

9 April 

Update 

3 June 

Update 

5 August 

Obs. 


Hurricanes 

7 

8 

8 

9 

8 


Named Storms 

13 

15 

15 

17 

16 


Hurricane Days 

30 

40 

40 

45 

29.50 


Named Storm Days 

60 

80 

80 

90 

84.75 


Intense Hurricanes 

3 

4 

4 

5 

5 


Intense Hurricane Days 

6 

9 

9 

11 

8.50 


Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 

125 

160 

160 

190 

164 

 

 

 

Billy Abernathy, FPEM

Polk County Emergency Management

EOC Coordinator

Office  863-519-7478 

Pager  863-501-0170

Fax  863-519-7485

Email   <mailto:williamabernathy at polkfl.com> williamabernathy at polkfl.com

"You may not be able to control the situation, but you can always
control your reaction."

 

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