FW: Tropics Watch Tropical Weather Discussion : AT@ 7/2/2008 1:59:04 AM

Wed Jul 2 04:18:43 PDT 2008

Good Morning,
Please take note that we have a tropical wave that is starting to
get some notation by the NHC Miami. This have has some potential
to get named by the weekend based on some of the reports I have
been reading in the weather blogs.... though it's path is not
yet able to be determined, some are thinking it will ramp up
rather fast due to the higher sea temps in the central Atlantic.

Keep your eyes open, and start checking your go packs. Now is the time
to make sure things WORK, not fail.

Evans
Polk County ARES EC 

-----Original Message-----
From: ccemtropicswatch at googlegroups.com
[mailto:ccemtropicswatch at googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of eocwx at collierem.org
Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2008 1:59 AM
To: CCEMTROPICSWATCH at GOOGLEGROUPS.COM; RICHARDZYVOLOSKI at COLLIERGOV.NET
Subject: Tropics Watch Tropical Weather Discussion : AT@ 7/2/2008 1:59:04 AM

The following weather bulletin is brought to you by Collier County Emergency
Management AXNT20 KNHC 020558 TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF
MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC ALONG 20W S OF 19N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A 1010 MB SFC LOW ANALYZED ALONG
THE AXIS NEAR 11N/12N...VERY NEAR A MAINTAINED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM
10N-13N WITHIN 60 NM E AND 180 NM W OF THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED NW-SE ALONG 20N37W 7N34W. WHILE THIS WAVE IS RATHER
AMPLIFIED AS SEEN IN SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS AND THE TPW
FIELD...ORGANIZED DEEP CLOUDINESS IS MINIMAL WITH ONLY ONE PATCH OF MODERATE
CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-34W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WEAK AND
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ONES TO ITS E. 
HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 42W-46W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED
V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE AXIS
NEAR 12N AND SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 55W-57W. A RECENT QSCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
ABOUT THE AXIS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KT E OF THE AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND CHALLENGING TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH A WEAK MOISTURE
SURGE EVIDENT IN THE TPW FIELD. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W S OF 19N
MOVING W 15 KT. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO S OF 20N BETWEEN 86W-95W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N21W 10N34W 6N41W 9N54W 10N62W.
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS SSW FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SE WATERS
FROM 24N-27N E OF 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ENHANCED BY THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK AS A
FRONT HAS DRIFTED N TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH SFC RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD W FROM THE ATLC. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY WINDS ACROSS THE S
WATERS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N70W WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING S TO NEAR 12N72W. 
WHILE DRY AIR IS EVIDENT NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST BOTH
OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN DIFFLUENT ZONES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW AND SW WATERS BUT THE DEEPEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED W OF THE AREA WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE AREA.
TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW WATERS DUE TO
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN...DUE TO LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 71W. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS FAIRLY STABLE WITH A
FEW BENIGN UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGING HOLDING IN
PLACE OVER THE E ATLC. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE IS CENTERED
NEAR 19N43W WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES...ESPECIALLY 
THE VIGOROUS ONE IN THE FAR E ATLC.       

$$
CANGIALOSI

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