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[Evans F. Mitchell KD4EFM]

UPDATED: 8:45 pm EDT, August 29, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me
ROUGH NIGHT FOR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS EARL STRENGTHENS

Earl is really starting to crank up. The pressure continues to fall as its
organization improves. This is not unexpected and I hope that people in the
path are ready for a rough night. As I mentioned in the post from earlier
today, an intensifying hurricane packs more punch (this is our team's
experience from personal observations) than one that is level or weakening.
As far as pin-pointing exactly where Earl will track over the next 24 hours,
it's tough to call as wobbles here and there could bring the core over a
certain island or, conversely, keep it off. Why do they wobble? A lot of it
has to do with a hurricane spinning like a top on a table (see the movie
"Inception"?) and the axis seems to move around the common area of rotation.
A hurricane's core bounces around inside the larger area of circulation and
so we get the wobbles instead of a perfectly straight path. In any case, the
area of the northern Caribbean Sea will experience quite a squally night
with some areas actually receiving hurricane conditions.

The latest data indicates that Earl should miss Puerto Rico to the north.
This is obviously good news for that island. But, we cannot be absolutely
sure until the center has passed by. Heavy rains and windy conditions along
with rough surf are a sure bet. The weather will improve by Tuesday.

As for a possible impact on the U.S.- the latest run of the global models
from late this afternoon continue to suggest that Earl will remain just far
enough off the East Coast to keep the worst weather off shore. We are
talking still only a hundred miles or so and that meaning the difference in
a breezy day with rain and possible hurricane force winds, tidal flooding
and torrential rains. I think the key remains how strong the ridge of high
pressure is between Earl and departing Danielle. If it holds firm or
inflates some, like a large balloon, then it could easily push Earl more
west and closer to the NC coast and then Cape Cod or Maine. Folks in Nova
Scotia seem especially in the line of fire and now we're looking to see if
Earl goes in to the Bay of Fundy (very bad) or skirts the coast to the
southeast (much better). So still no conclusion as to what Earl will do in
the end. I do expect that tonight's major global model run will yield more
solid clues. I know it's tough to want to know what will happen in
definitive terms, but it's not usually that easy.

For those wondering about 97L and future Fiona, it is coming. The system is
very large and is taking its own sweet time to develop. While you may think
this is good news, it really isn't for the longer these enormous Cape Verde
tropical waves take to develop, the farther west they usually track. This
may be why the ECMWF model now shows it getting in to the Gulf of Mexico
going past south Florida and over Cuba. I will address this more and more
throughout the week but we need to keep a calm about ourselves and deal with
Earl first. Fiona-to-be is not going to impact land for several days if at
all. As is always the case, we will get more pieces to this complex puzzle
with each passing model cycle. I will have another update here tomorrow
morning by 10am ET (and yes, I plan to be on time with this one, sorry
tonight's was later than I had planned. A lot is going on and I am trying to
keep up). 

BY MARK SUDDUTH







Evans F. Mitchell
KD4EFM / WQFK-894

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