Tonight's Freeze

Tue Jan 5 17:48:01 PST 2010

Here in normally warmer suburban south Lakeland in the highlands at an elevation of 218 feet the temperature dropped to 32 deg by 8:30 pm. It looks bad and we may end up with a hard freeze of long duration (<28 deg ~12 hours) for much of the inland central peninsula.

Here is what NWS Ruskin is saying:

237   
FXUS62 KTBW 060029  
AFDTBW  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
729 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010  

UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING. AS IT IS  
MUCH OF THE  
AREA DID NOT REACH 50 DEGREES TODAY. DEW POINTS CRASHED WELL  
BELOW MET GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO WHAT THE MAV WAS SHOWING. WE  
ALREADY SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING AT 7 PM ACROSS  
THE INTERIOR. ITS 36 DEGREES IN ONA...33 DEGREES AT THE  
BROOKSVILLE FAWN...AND GAINESVILLE IS 31 DEGREES.  

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY COLDER THAN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST HAS SO   
I HAVE LOWERED THEM SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A  
FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS WELL...SO DROPPED  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO AS LOW AS 17 DEGREES IN LEVY COUNTY...LOWER 20S  
FOR PASCO COUNTY...AND MID 20S MUCH OF THE REST OF THE INTERIOR.  
I DO THINK DURATIONS OF MID 20S WILL NOT BE SO LONG AS TO REQUIRE  
AN UPGRADE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM THE BAY AREA  
SOUTHWARD...BUT PASCO COUNTY COULD BE CLOSE. IF IT DOES OCCUR  
THERE...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COUNTY LINE NEAR HERNANDO.  

WE COULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN  
NORTHWEST LEE COUNTY. BELIEVE THIS WOULD OCCUR OVER A VERY SMALL  
PORTION OF THE COUNTY SO WILL NOT EXTEND THE FREEZE WARNING THERE  
AT THIS TIME.  

IT SHOULD BE NOTED OUR CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE  
BETWEEN THE VERY COLD MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE. IF THE MAV  
SHOULD VERIFY...HARD FREEZES WILL OCCUR SOUTHWARD THROUGH  
HIGHLANDS AND DESOTO COUNTIES.  

UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE OUT NO LATER THAN 830 THIS EVENING.  

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AVIATION  
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF LOWER  
CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE COAST AND GULF WATERS AFTER 06Z. HAVE  
MENTIONED FEW-SCT AROUND 4KFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU 12-15Z.  
OTHERWISE JUST HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.  

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MARINE  
WINDS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS BUT THE  
SEAS ARE DOWN TO 5 TO 6 FEET NOW AT THE BUOYS WELL OFFSHORE. WILL  
ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM BUT WILL BE HEADLINING  
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.  

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  

TPA  30  53  34  60 /   0   0   5  10   
FMY  33  58  36  65 /   0   0   5  10   
GIF  28  54  30  62 /   0   0   5  10   
SRQ  32  55  36  61 /   0   0   5  10   
BKV  21  53  25  61 /   0   0   5  10   
SPG  36  53  38  59 /   0   0   5  10   

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TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-  
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-  
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.  

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST   
     WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-  
     HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-  
     SARASOTA-SUMTER.  

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING   
     FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-  
     PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA.  

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-DE   
     SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-  
     SARASOTA.  

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY   
     AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEVY-POLK-  
     SUMTER.  

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CITRUS-  
     HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.  

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY   
     MORNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.  

GULF WATERS...NONE.  

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UPDATE/MARINE...JILLSON  
AVIATION...JOHNSON  

Happy New year 2010,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, US
nz4o at arrl.net

CWOP #AR692/NZ4O
CoCoRaHs #FL-PK-18
NWS Skywarn #POL-10A

Lakeland FL Weather Observations: http://www.wcflunatall.com/index1.html 
Florida & U.S. Raw Weather Forecasting Resource Links: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o13.htm 
Lakeland, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o22.htm 
Harmful Man Induced Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted: http://www.globalwarminglie.org
NZ4O Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm  

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