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<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>We have a decent chance for some much
needed rain during the Monday-Tuesday 01/19-20/2009 period and then a return to
cold weather. Early on Tuesday the cold air comes rushing back in in
earnest and will linger for approximately four days.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Looking at the latest GFSX model run, it is
predicting that the 540 dcm thickness rain-snow line will reach down to
approximately the latitude of Tampa on Tuesday. So if that were to
verify, then on Tuesday evening the west coast of Florida from
approximately Cedar Key to Spring Hill could see some ocean effect snow showers,
with rain showers southward to Naples. The showers could penetrate inland
approximately 20 miles.<BR><BR>The GFSX model is also forecasting that the
(5000 feet) 850 mb 0 deg. C temperature line will reach down to approximately
the latitude of Naples and the </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>-4 deg. C temperature line down to
approximately the latitude of Tampa on Tuesday evening, holding for
approximately 36 hours. </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>If that were to verify then subfreezing
minimum temperatures could reach as far south as the inland rural SW
peninsula at Immokalee,</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>with urban areas seeing near freezing
temperature. The SE coast of the peninsula would be warmer due to proximity to
the Gulf Stream.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>The subfreezing
temperatures would occur on Wednesday and Thursday mornings 01/21-22/2009.
Warmer weather will return beginning on Friday afternoon 01/23/2009 but no 80
deg. max. temperatures are in the offing through at least Sunday
01/25/2009.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>As we all know it did not get as cold
during the period Wednesday-Saturday 01/14-17/2009 as the models forecasted. Why
not? To explain in detail would bore the heck out of everyone so I will just say
that the longwave trough in the eastern U.S. did not dip as far south into
Florida as the models forecasted, so the coldest air was blocked from reaching
the central and south peninsula. </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>If the jet stream had of dipped as far
south as models had forecasted then we would have seen a repeat of
the January 1985 super freeze. Here is what happened during that
event:</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=arial color=black size=2><B>Coldest early morning minimum
temperatures of the 20th century on 1/21/85:<BR><BR>North- </B></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=arial color=black size=2><B>Near Caryville -6 (that's below zero
F)<BR>Chipley 2<BR>Defuniak Springs 3<BR>Jasper, Monticello, Quincy
4<BR>Madison, Pensacola 5<BR>Live Oak, Tallahassee 6<BR>Jacksonville, Lake City,
Perry 7<BR>Crestview 8<BR>Apalachicola 9</B></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=arial color=black><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=arial color=black><B><FONT
size=2>Central-</FONT></B></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=arial color=black><B><FONT size=2>Bushnell 12<BR>Ridge Manor
14<BR>Dade City 16<BR>Plant City 17</FONT><BR></DIV></B></FONT><STRONG><FONT
face=Arial size=2><FONT face=arial><B><FONT
size=2></FONT></B></FONT></FONT></STRONG>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT face=arial><B><FONT
size=2></FONT></B></FONT></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT face=arial><B><FONT size=2>I've been
getting lot's of email requests for my weather forecasts as of late so it's time
to post the following:</FONT></B></FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT face=arial><B><FONT
size=2></FONT></B></FONT></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT face=arial><B><FONT size=2>NOTE!!!
Standard Disclaimer. </FONT></B></FONT><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: 700; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=2>As I officially
retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2004, I do not expend the
resources and time necessary to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological
synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past
years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
</FONT></SPAN></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: 700; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: 700; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN><FONT face=arial><B><FONT
size=2>As weather forecasting is still an inexact science, these <FONT
face=arial color=#dc143c>"not for profit"</FONT><FONT face=arial color=#0000ff>
</FONT>discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in<FONT face=arial
color=#0000ff> </FONT></FONT></B></FONT><B><FONT size=2><FONT face=arial
color=#dc143c>lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or
property,</FONT><FONT face=arial color=#0000ff> </FONT></FONT><FONT face=arial
size=2>are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts
of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my
intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2009 by Thomas F. Giella, all
rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper
credit is given. </FONT></B></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>.....On Saturday January 17, 2009
record shattering bitter Arctic air gripped the eastern 2/3's of the U.S. and
Canada. The temperature dropped to</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-51 deg. F at La Grande IV,
QE,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-44 deg. F at Big Black River,
ME,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-38 deg. F at Island Pond,
VT,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-35 deg. F at Kapuskasing,
ON,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-31 deg. F at Berlin,
NH,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-30 deg. F at Ely,
MN,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-29 deg. F at Knox,
OH,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-27 deg. F at Paradox,
NY,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-27 deg. F at Monticello,
IA,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-27 deg. F at Desoto,
WI,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-25 deg. F at The Barrens,
PA,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-24 deg. F at Rochelle,
IL,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-21 deg. F at Middle Fork River,
WV,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-21 deg. F at Ashfield,
MA,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-20 deg. F Youghiogheny River,
MD,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-19 deg. F at Constantine,
MI,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-16 deg. F at Papakatina,
NJ,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-15 deg. F Eastford,
CT,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-10 deg. F at Grandfather
Mountain, NC,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-9 deg. F at Mt. Leconte,
NC,</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2></FONT></B> </DIV>
<DIV><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>-7 deg. F at Montebello, VA and -6
deg. F at Kingston, RI.</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV>
<P><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>Even Florida got into the act. The
temperature dropped to</FONT></B></P>
<P><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>20 deg. F at
Crestview,</FONT></B></P>
<P><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>20 deg. F at
Tallahassee,</FONT></B></P>
<P><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>24 deg. F at Nobleton
</FONT></B></P>
<P><B><FONT face=arial color=#00008b size=2>25 deg. F at
Holder.....</FONT></B></P></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2> </DIV>
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