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<DIV><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT color=#003366>AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION</FONT> <BR><FONT color=#003366>NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL</FONT> <BR><FONT color=#003366>102 PM EST SUN
FEB 1 2009</FONT> <BR></STRONG></FONT><FONT
face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT color=#003366>
<BR>..PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT'S SUPER BOWL</FONT> <BR>
<BR></STRONG></FONT><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT
color=#003366> <BR>SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER TODAY</FONT> <BR>WHEREAS <BR>THE FLOW ALOFT STARTING
TO BREAK AWAY FROM A ZONAL PATTERN. A SERIES <BR>OF IMPULSES ARE
NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF OF <BR>MEXICO IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. <BR> <BR>
<HR>
<BR></STRONG></FONT><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT
color=#003366> <BR>SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)</FONT>
<BR>EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO POOL <BR>UNDERNEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT <BR>KEEPING PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THE IMPULSES ALOFT <BR>OVER THE
GULF ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL <BR>OR
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE CIRCULATION WILL BE SMALL SCALE...BUT
<BR>GIVEN THE QUICK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD
<BR>PACK A LITTLE PUNCH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE
SMALL <BR>NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS
DIFFICULT...AND <BR>WILL GO WITH A GFS/NAM/WRF BLEND.
<BR> <BR>AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALL INDICATE
QUITE A BIT <BR>OF MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE BEGINNING AT 12Z
MONDAY...PRETTY MUCH <BR>AREAWIDE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW.
GIVEN AN EXPECTED PATH <BR>ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WOULD ONLY EXPECT <BR>SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IF ANY
DOWN THERE. WILL PLACE THE BEST <BR>CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THERE...BUT GIVEN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY <BR>CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO FARTHER NORTH TO TAMPA BAY. <BR> <BR>WHAT IS
CERTAIN IS THAT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE STATE IT WILL PUSH A <BR>COLD
FRONT THROUGH...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AND MAKING
<BR>FOR A WINDY DAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT THE
UPPER <BR>50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...60 OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA
AND THE MID <BR>60S ACROSS SW FLORIDA.
<BR></STRONG></FONT><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT
color=#003366> <BR>LONG RANGE (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)</FONT>
<BR><FONT color=#000080>A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
<BR>SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY <BR>WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE <BR>EASTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. <FONT
color=#ff0000>THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD <BR>DRY ARCTIC
AIR MASS ON A BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH <BR>AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE LIKELY OVER THE NATURE COAST WITH NEAR FREEZING
<BR>TEMPERATURES EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PENINSULA <BR>BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT LOW WIND <BR>CHILLS WITH VALUES IN THE TEENS OVER THE NATURE
COAST AND UPPER 20S <BR>TO ~30 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.</FONT> WITH THE GFS <BR>SHOWING 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING INTO
THE 0 TO -5C RANGE HAVE LOWERED <BR>MIN TEMPS SOME FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS IN <BR>LINE WITH THE LATEST MEX AND
01/00Z ENSEMBLE TEMP GUIDANCE. <BR> <BR>ON WEDNESDAY STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE LOWER <BR>MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION <BR>WILL LIKELY
CREATE CONSIDERABLE COLD-AIR STRATO-CU OVER THE ADJACENT <BR>GULF
WATERS WITH SOME OF THESE CLOUDS LIKELY TO AFFECT MY COASTAL ZONES
<BR>EARLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
<BR>DAY. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO
<BR>RUN SOME 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER
<BR>50S NORTH...MID 50S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 50S TO ~60 FAR
SOUTH. <BR> <BR>THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY <BR>NIGHT...THEN SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT <BR>INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND A
LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN <BR>THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA<FONT
color=#ff0000> WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL <BR>COOLING
BOTH NIGHTS WITH HARD FREEZE (LOW TEMPS 20-25 DEGREES) CONDITIONS <BR>A
GOOD BET ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
<BR>AS FAR SOUTH AS FORT MYERS</FONT>...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY
REMAINING <BR>WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN ONLY REACHING THE 50S
NORTH INTO <BR>CENTRAL ZONES AND ~60 FAR SOUTH DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. <BR></FONT> <BR>DURING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE <BR>WESTERN ATLANTIC. EASTERLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW THE <BR>VERY COLD/DRY AIR MASS TO
MODIFY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED <BR>EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TOWARD <BR>CLIMATIC NORMS.
<BR> <BR>
<HR>
<BR></STRONG></FONT><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT
color=#003366> <BR>AVIATION</FONT> <BR>A CONTINUED SLOW
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE <BR>WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES <BR>THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TIME PERIODS <BR>BUT
CEILING HEIGHTS AOA 4KFT WILL MAINTAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
<BR>THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL LOWER
INTO <BR>THE MVFR RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE <BR>AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS...AND MIST
DEVELOP OVER <BR>THE REGION AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST OVER THE <BR>EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS IN THE 5-10 <BR>KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO <BR>SOUTHWEST ~10 KNOTS ON MONDAY. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE <BR>AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE <BR>ON THE INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH AN INCREASED
RISK FOR LOW LEVEL WIND <BR>SHEAR FROM MID DAY ON. <BR>
<BR>
<HR>
<BR></STRONG></FONT><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT
color=#003366> <BR>MARINE</FONT> <BR>WILL SEE SOME RAINS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR <BR>WATERS AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW <BR>PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WILL
BRING SOME WINDS TO THE <BR>WATERS...BUT EXACT LOCATION OF WIND MAX IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. <BR>EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE <BR>RAINS MONDAY AND ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. <BR> <BR>
<HR>
<BR></STRONG></FONT><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT
color=#003366> <BR>FIRE WEATHER</FONT> <BR>AS THE DRIEST AIR
PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD <BR>FRONT...WILL HAVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER
THE NORTHERN THREE <BR>COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY GET THOSE FARTHER
SOUTH AS <BR>WELL...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A WATCH
UP <BR>THERE. <BR> <BR>
<HR>
<BR></STRONG></FONT><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT
color=#003366> <BR>PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS</FONT> <BR>
<BR>TPA 52 64 51 60 / 10 80
40 10 <BR>FMY 53 71 56 64 /
10 70 50 20 <BR>GIF 51 63
51 60 / 10 80 40 10 <BR>SRQ
51 65 53 61 / 10 80 40 10
<BR>BKV 44 62 44 57 / 10 80
40 10 <BR>SPG 54 63 52 59 /
10 80 40 10 <BR> <BR>
<HR>
<BR></STRONG></FONT><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT
color=#003366> <BR>TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES</FONT> <BR>
<BR>FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-LEVY-SUMTER.
<BR> <BR>GULF WATERS...NONE. <BR> <BR>
<HR>
<BR> <BR>
<HR>
<BR> <BR>SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...55/SHARP <BR>LONG
TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL <BR> <BR></STRONG></FONT><PRE><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter" color=#003366><A href="http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/fxus62.chunk.html"><STRONG>CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.</STRONG></A></FONT></PRE><PRE><DIV><FONT size=3><STRONG>----- Original Message ----- </STRONG></FONT><DIV><FONT size=3><STRONG>From: "Thomas F. Giella KN4LF" <</STRONG></FONT><A href="mailto:kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com"><FONT size=3><STRONG>kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com</STRONG></FONT></A><FONT size=3><STRONG>></STRONG></FONT></DIV><DIV><FONT size=3><STRONG>To: <</STRONG></FONT><A href="mailto:kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com"><FONT size=3><STRONG>kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com</STRONG></FONT></A><FONT size=3><STRONG>></STRONG></FONT></DIV><DIV><FONT size=3><STRONG>Sent: Sunday, February 01, 2009 6:30 AM</STRONG></FONT></DIV><DIV><FONT size=3><STRONG>Subject: Another Big Freeze On The Way?!</STRONG></FONT></DIV></DIV><DIV><FONT size=3><BR><STRONG></STRONG></FONT></DIV><FONT size=3><STRONG>> Guys & Gals,<BR>> <BR>> It looks like we are still on track for some strong storms during the <BR>> Monday-Tuesday 02/02-03/2009 period. It appears that the surface <BR>> extratropical (cold) low will cross the peninsula and given that and other <BR>> strong atmospheric dynamics some isolated severe weather is possible.<BR>> <BR>> During the Wednesday-Friday 02/04-06/2009 period another significant freeze <BR>> event is probable with the coldest day being the 5th.. Minimum temperatures <BR>> could drop as low if not lower than the last freeze that occurred between <BR>> 01/20-24/2009. In inland rural areas the subfreezing line will extend as far <BR>> south as Immokalee in the Everglades.<BR>> <BR>> As before there is also a slim chance for ocean effect snow showers along <BR>> the west coast of the central peninsula, with better chances over NE Florida <BR>> on early Wednesday morning the 18th.<BR>> <BR>> We should then see a mild to warm period between approximately 02/07-14/2009 <BR>> followed more cold weather.<BR>> <BR>> Take Care,<BR>> Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF<BR>> Lakeland, FL, USA<BR>> </STRONG></FONT><A href="mailto:kn4lf@arrl.net"><FONT size=3><STRONG>kn4lf@arrl.net</STRONG></FONT></A><BR><FONT size=3><STRONG>> <BR>> CWOP #AR692/KN4LF<BR>> CoCoRaHs #FL-PK-18<BR>> NWS Skywarn #POL-10A<BR>> <BR>> Lakeland, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: <BR>> </STRONG></FONT><A href="http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm"><FONT size=3><STRONG>http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm</STRONG></FONT></A><BR><FONT size=3><STRONG>> Harmful Man Induced Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted: <BR>> </STRONG></FONT><A href="http://www.kn4lf.com/globalwarminglie.htm"><FONT size=3><STRONG>http://www.kn4lf.com/globalwarminglie.htm</STRONG></FONT></A><BR><FONT size=3><STRONG>> <BR>> ----- Original Message ----- <BR>> From: "Thomas F. Giella KN4LF" <</STRONG></FONT><A href="mailto:kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com"><FONT size=3><STRONG>kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com</STRONG></FONT></A><FONT size=3><STRONG>><BR>> To: <</STRONG></FONT><A href="mailto:kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com"><FONT size=3><STRONG>kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com</STRONG></FONT></A><FONT size=3><STRONG>><BR>> Sent: Thursday, January 29, 2009 10:18 PM<BR>> Subject: Another Big Freeze For Florida?<BR>> <BR>> <BR>>> Guys and Gals,<BR>>><BR>>> Taking a look at the 1200 UTC run of the GFSX forecast model, if it <BR>>> verifies<BR>>> the weather could get pretty rough in Florida on February 3-4, 2009.<BR>>><BR>>> It looks like the surface low may undergo bombogenesis after crossing the<BR>>> state. It kind of reminds me of the March 1993 superstorm misnamed as<BR>>> the "no named" hurricane by the media.<BR>>><BR>>> So the bottom line is that if the model verifies Florida could see a <BR>>> severe<BR>>> weather outbreak followed by another significant freeze event.<BR>>><BR>>> 73 & GUD DX,<BR>>> Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF<BR>>> Lakeland, FL, USA<BR>>> </STRONG></FONT><A href="mailto:kn4lf@arrl.net"><FONT size=3><STRONG>kn4lf@arrl.net</STRONG></FONT></A><BR><FONT size=3><STRONG>>><BR>>> KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio Autobiography: </STRONG></FONT><A href="http://www.kn4lf.com/"><FONT size=3><STRONG>http://www.kn4lf.com</STRONG></FONT></A><BR><BR>
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