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<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>It looks like some other Meteorologists are
now jumping on "my" snow in Florida scenario. Paul Dellegatto mentioned it
yesterday evening on Fox 13 and he's a pretty conservative (unlike me) and very
accurate weather forecaster. </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>I honed my brash aviation/marine weather
forecasting skills in the U.S. military and for Uncle Sam in other
capacities. But I'm also now rusty skill wise as I retired from for profit
weather forecasting in 2004 and not for profit weather forecasting in
2007.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Anyway Meteorologist Alan Huffman (see link
below) has also now picked up on the possible snow in Florida scenario.
However just because more of us are mentioning it doesn't increase the
likelihood of it happening.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://www.examiner.com/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2010m1d6-Very-cold-weather-to-grip-the-US-deep-into-Texas-and-Florida?cid=examiner-email"><STRONG><FONT
size=2
face=Arial>http://www.examiner.com/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2010m1d6-Very-cold-weather-to-grip-the-US-deep-into-Texas-and-Florida?cid=examiner-email</FONT></STRONG></A><STRONG><FONT
size=2 face=Arial> .</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Also here is part of the latest forecast
discussion from NWS Miami-</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT><FONT size=2 face=Arial><FONT size=3
face="Lucida Sans Typewriter">.....TO PUT IT BLUNTLY...THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM FRIDAY <BR>NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MISERABLE...AS <BR>MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
RESULTING IN <BR>WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH COLD
AND <BR>BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AS A SIBERIAN SURFACE HIGH
<BR>DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
<BR>FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
<BR>EVEN MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S IN
<BR>SOME AREAS. <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial>ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ADDING MIXED <BR>PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...</FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>THERE IS ALSO A
<BR>REMOTE CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET OR ICE PELLETS MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN
<BR>THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT</FONT>.</STRONG>
REGARDLESS... <BR>A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA ON <BR>SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
<BR>DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
<BR>FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE
<BR>DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS DEPART. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A
<BR>SECONDARY MID-LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING AROUND BASE OF DEEP UPPER
<BR>TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
<BR>ON SUNDAY...AND INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ATLANTIC
<BR>WATERS EAST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRISK NORTHWEST
<BR>WINDS TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
<BR>THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND AN EVEN HIGHER FREEZE POTENTIAL ON
<BR>SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL
<BR>EXPECTED FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...... </FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial><STRONG>NWS Melbourne-</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>WOULD BE
REMISS IF I DIDN'T MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT <BR>MIXED
PRECIP BEHIND THE INTIAL FRONTAL SURGE.</FONT></STRONG> </FONT><FONT
face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG>DATA FROM BOTH GLOBAL <BR>AND
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING TIME SECTIONS/RAOBS INDICATE STRONG
<BR>LOW LEVEL ADVECTION OF COLD DRY AIR BENEATH A SATURATED AIR MASS
<BR>ABOVE H8-H7 AS THE POS TILT H50 TROUGH LAGS WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT. <BR>NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT...BEFORE THE DRY AIR
DEEPENS...GUIDANCE <BR>CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT SOME PRECIP OUT OF THE
MID LEVELS AS THE 0C H85 <BR>LINE SHIFTS SWD INTO THE NRN/CTRL CWA
(BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES NWD) <BR>SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY
FROZEN P-TYPE COULD FALL AS SOME LIGHT <BR>SNOWFLAKES/GRAUPEL OR
SLEET. OF COURSE...TEMP/RH FIELDS WOULD HAVE <BR>TO ALIGN JUST RIGHT
FOR THIS TO TAKE PLACE - FOR EXAMPLE COLD AIR <BR>ADVECTION COULD
LAG...OR DRY ADVECTION COULD OCCUR STRONGER/FASTER <BR>THAN MODELS
ADVERTISE - SO A LOT CAN HAPPEN TO CAUSE MIXED PRECIP <BR>*NOT* TO
FALL IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER...FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT AS RARE <BR>IN
ECFL (E.G. 2003, 2006 AND 2008) AS ONE MIGHT
THINK. </STRONG><BR></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial><FONT size=3
face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial><FONT size=3
face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>And last but not
least NWS Tampa Bay-</FONT></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial><FONT size=3
face="Lucida Sans Typewriter"><STRONG><FONT size=2
face=Arial></FONT></STRONG></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial><FONT size=3
face="Lucida Sans Typewriter">.....INTERESTING SCENARIO TO SET UP
<BR>FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FINISHING THE COLD SNAP.
LATEST <BR>MODELS DEEPEN MID-UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W GULF WITH
SERIES OF <BR>VORTICITY MAXES ROTATING OFF THE CENTRAL TO E GULF
OVER THE AREA IN <BR>FAST JET SW FLOW. SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLING
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP <BR>OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH COLD ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE <BR>REGION FROM THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT <BR>SECTIONS FROM AROUND THE AREA SHOWING
OVERRUNNING TYPE RAIN SHIELD <BR>AND WITH GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS AFTER
06Z. MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED WITH <BR>THIS SET UP AS WELL AND HAVE
RAISED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 PERCENT TO <BR>SLIGHT CHANCE N AND CHANCE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND <BR>SATURDAY MORNING. NOW
THE COMPLICATED PART... SURFACE TEMPS TO BE <BR>COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S OVER THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO <BR>MID 30S AROUND
THE BAY AREA AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHERN AND <BR>COASTAL AREAS.
THESE LOW SURFACE TEMPS COMBINED WITH POPS WOULD <BR>INDICATED
<STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIP...SO
WILL <BR>CAUTIOUSLY DISCUSS. AROUND 12Z SATURDAY EXPECT SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT <BR>ABOVE 10K FT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP THEN WARM
LAYER BETWEEN <BR>700-900MB FOR COLD RAIN..THEN COLDER BELOW
FREEZING LAYER FROM <BR>900-1000MB THEN SOME WARMER SLIGHT ABOVE 32
DEGREE AIR AT/NEAR THE <BR>SURFACE. SO CURRENT THINKING IS PRIMARILY
A COLD RAIN AND RAW <BR>CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH THE SLIMMEST OF <BR>CHANCES OF A FROZEN MIX/BLEND AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. <BR></FONT></STRONG> <BR>COLD DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER <BR>THE REGION TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HARD FREEZE AND FREEZING <BR>CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TO END THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..... <BR> <BR></DIV>
<DIV></FONT></FONT><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>If frozen precipitation
does occur it could just be some sleet/ice pellets and or a mix to
include snowflakes and most likely across the central peninsula and even
south central peninsula. Or it could be a measureable 1-3" like fell across the
central peninsula in January 1977. As I mentioned in a previous email the
synoptic weather pattern is identical to the January 1977 snow
episode.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Also tonight looks to be another
significant freeze event. With a new influx of cold dry air today (dewpoints in
the single digits and teens), tonight could be the coldest night yet as winds
should die down considerably to near calm to at times totally calm for
extended periods of time, as it now appears that the Arctic high pressure system
will settle across the central peninsula later tonight. However a bit
of subtropical jet stream cirrus/CS is headed for the central peninsula and this
could hold temperatures up some.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>So we could see a hard freeze event (<27
deg. for at least four hours) deep into inland rural south peninsula.
Coastal and even urban areas are likely to see temperatures near, at or just
below freezing. </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>In reality minimum temperatures could dip
as low as the mid and upper teens in inland rural areas of the north and north
central peninsula. Upper teens to mid 20's in the inland rural central and south
central peninsula and low to mid 20's in the inland rural south peninsula. Once
again these temperatures are for inland rural agricultural areas, not major
suburban and urban areas.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Happy New year 2010,<BR>Thomas F. Giella,
NZ4O<BR>Lakeland, FL, US<BR></FONT></STRONG><A
href="mailto:nz4o@arrl.net"><STRONG><FONT size=2
face=Arial>nz4o@arrl.net</FONT></STRONG></A><BR><STRONG><FONT size=2
face=Arial>John 3:16 <><</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>CWOP #AR692/NZ4O<BR>CoCoRaHs
#FL-PK-18<BR>NWS Skywarn #POL-10A</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Lakeland FL Weather Observations:
</FONT></STRONG><A href="http://www.wcflunatall.com/index1.html"><STRONG><FONT
size=2
face=Arial>http://www.wcflunatall.com/index1.html</FONT></STRONG></A><STRONG><FONT
size=2 face=Arial> <BR>Florida & U.S. Raw Weather Forecasting Resource
Links: </FONT></STRONG><A
href="http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o13.htm"><STRONG><FONT size=2
face=Arial>http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o13.htm</FONT></STRONG></A><STRONG><FONT
size=2 face=Arial> <BR>Lakeland, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive:
</FONT></STRONG><A href="http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o22.htm"><STRONG><FONT
size=2
face=Arial>http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o22.htm</FONT></STRONG></A><STRONG><FONT
size=2 face=Arial> <BR>Harmful Man Induced Climate Change (Global Warming)
Refuted: </FONT></STRONG><A href="http://www.globalwarminglie.org"><STRONG><FONT
size=2
face=Arial>http://www.globalwarminglie.org</FONT></STRONG></A><BR><STRONG><FONT
size=2 face=Arial>NZ4O Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
</FONT></STRONG><A href="http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm"><STRONG><FONT
size=2
face=Arial>http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm</FONT></STRONG></A><STRONG><FONT
size=2 face=Arial> </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV></BODY></HTML>