Cold Weather Returning

[Thomas F. Giella KN4LF]

Hi Phil,

I don't look at the GFSX 0600 and 1800 UTC model runs as they are always so 
much warmer and drier than the 0000 and 1200 UTC model runs. Somebody is 
goofing off on data entry on those model runs.

The 0000 and 1200 UTC runs have been flip flopping back and forth between 
cold and cool and this morning the 1200 UTC run is back to colder again. 
Remember that the temperature MOS are based on the 850 mb temperature and 
this air mass is Arctic in origin and heavy and shallow so won't really show 
up that well at 850 mb.

We are in for 5-6 days of cold to cool weather with a freeze for me here in 
Lakeland and a hard freeze below 20 degrees for you in Gainesville. Actually 
the hard freeze line could reach down to Brooksville and the freeze line 
down to Punta Gorda.

It looks like the north Florida snow event has flopped but there may be an 
ocean effect snow flurry from Jacksonville to St. Augustine on Saturday the 
17th.

With a fairly progressive jet stream we will not see a long term persistent 
cold pattern lock in.

Thomas

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Thomas F. Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf at earthlink.net>
To: "Phil Beverly Gville" <pcbjrmail at yahoo.com>
Sent: Thursday, January 01, 2009 7:28 PM
Subject: WX Pattern Change

Hi Phil,

It looks like my December guesscast for a longwave pattern change back to 
colder weather around January 10th may verify.

Thomas

From: Thomas F. Giella <kn4lf1 at verizon.net>
Subject: Re: Re: What Else? Winter (What's That) Weather
To: pcbjrmail at yahoo.com
Date: Monday, December 22, 2008, 3:23 PM


Hi Phil,

Looks pretty grim through the rest of the month/year. We will see a shift 
back to colder weather around January 10th.

Thomas

From: Thomas F. Giella <kn4lf1 at verizon.net>
Subject: Re: What Else? Winter (What's That) Weather
To: pcbjrmail at yahoo.com
Date: Thursday, December 18, 2008, 10:25 AM

Hi Phil,

I haven't had a chance to really look closely at the long term weather trend 
but after one month of cool to cold weather I figure that we will have 
approximately one month of mild to warm weather.

Once we get rid of the Kona low near Hawaii I expect the SE heat ridge to 
shift westward again. I also expect a -AO, -NAO and +PNA to return in mid 
January with a serious freeze threat or two for the peninsula.

Thomas