More Cold Weather On The Way

[Thomas F. Giella KN4LF]

We have a decent chance for some much needed rain during the Monday-Tuesday 01/19-20/2009 period and then a return to cold weather. Early on Tuesday the cold air comes rushing back in in earnest and will linger for approximately four days.

Looking at the latest GFSX model run, it is predicting that the 540 dcm thickness rain-snow line will reach down to approximately the latitude of Tampa on Tuesday. So if that were to verify, then on Tuesday evening the west coast of Florida from approximately Cedar Key to Spring Hill could see some ocean effect snow showers, with rain showers southward to Naples. The showers could penetrate inland approximately 20 miles.

The GFSX model is also forecasting that the (5000 feet) 850 mb 0 deg. C temperature line will reach down to approximately the latitude of Naples and the 
-4 deg. C temperature line down to approximately the latitude of Tampa on Tuesday evening, holding for approximately 36 hours. 

If that were to verify then subfreezing minimum temperatures could reach as far south as the inland rural SW peninsula at Immokalee,
with urban areas seeing near freezing temperature. The SE coast of the peninsula would be warmer due to proximity to the Gulf Stream.

The subfreezing temperatures would occur on Wednesday and Thursday mornings 01/21-22/2009. Warmer weather will return beginning on Friday afternoon 01/23/2009 but no 80 deg. max. temperatures are in the offing through at least Sunday 01/25/2009.

As we all know it did not get as cold during the period Wednesday-Saturday 01/14-17/2009 as the models forecasted. Why not? To explain in detail would bore the heck out of everyone so I will just say that the longwave trough in the eastern U.S. did not dip as far south into Florida as the models forecasted, so the coldest air was blocked from reaching the central and south peninsula.  

If the jet stream had of dipped as far south as models had forecasted then we would have seen a repeat of the January 1985 super freeze. Here is what happened during that event:

Coldest early morning minimum temperatures of the 20th century on 1/21/85:

North- 

Near Caryville -6 (that's below zero F)
Chipley 2
Defuniak Springs 3
Jasper, Monticello, Quincy 4
Madison, Pensacola 5
Live Oak, Tallahassee 6
Jacksonville, Lake City, Perry 7
Crestview 8
Apalachicola 9

Central-

Bushnell 12
Ridge Manor 14
Dade City 16
Plant City 17


I've been getting lot's of email requests for my weather forecasts as of late so it's time to post the following:

NOTE!!! Standard Disclaimer. As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2004, I do not expend the resources and time necessary to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. 

As weather forecasting is still an inexact science, these "not for profit" discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2009 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given. 


....On Saturday January 17, 2009 record shattering bitter Arctic air gripped the eastern 2/3's of the U.S. and Canada. The temperature dropped to

-51 deg. F at La Grande IV, QE,

-44 deg. F at Big Black River, ME,

-38 deg. F at Island Pond, VT,

-35 deg. F at Kapuskasing, ON,

-31 deg. F at Berlin, NH,

-30 deg. F at Ely, MN,

-29 deg. F at Knox, OH,

-27 deg. F at Paradox, NY,

-27 deg. F at Monticello, IA,

-27 deg. F at Desoto, WI,

-25 deg. F at The Barrens, PA,

-24 deg. F at Rochelle, IL,

-21 deg. F at Middle Fork River, WV,

-21 deg. F at Ashfield, MA,

-20 deg. F Youghiogheny River, MD,

-19 deg. F at Constantine, MI,

-16 deg. F at Papakatina, NJ,

-15 deg. F Eastford, CT,

-10 deg. F at Grandfather Mountain, NC,

-9 deg. F at Mt. Leconte, NC,

-7 deg. F at Montebello, VA and -6 deg. F at Kingston, RI.
Even Florida got into the act. The temperature dropped to

20 deg. F at Crestview,

20 deg. F at Tallahassee,

24 deg. F at Nobleton 

25 deg. F at Holder.....




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