Let It Snow

[Thomas F. Giella KN4LF]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
736 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009  
   
UPDATE  
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAVE  
JUST BEGUN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY. RADAR IMAGERY  
INDICATES THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SHOWERS IS MOVING DIRECTLY TO  
THE EAST WITH THE BAND THINNING SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS GENERAL TREND AS WELL...AND WITH  
THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA...IT  
IS PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT WILL SHOW CONTINUED STRETCHING AND  
SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE  
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A MORE POTENT FRONT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR  
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON  
POISED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD OVER FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES  
TO COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS FROM  
HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTIES NORTHWARD SEEING FREEZING TEMPS. THE  
LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS AGAIN INDICATING  
A SCENARIO WHERE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE  
QUESTION NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...AS A DECK OF STRATUS STREAMS OFF THE  
GULF OVER WESTERN FLORIDA AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY COLD LOW  
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. EVEN MODEL SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THAT IF  
PRECIPITATION IS HEAVY ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD SUPPORT  
FLAKES. THE SITUATION WILL TRULY HINGE ON HOW MUCH STRATUS  
DEVELOPS...ITS THICKNESS...AND WHERE THE MID-LEVEL WINDS STEER THE  
DECK. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES AS THE SITUATION DRAWS CLOSER.  

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Lakeland, FL, USA
kn4lf at arrl.net

CWOP #AR692/KN4LF
CoCoRaHs #FL-PK-18
NWS Skywarn #POL-10A

Lakeland, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm 
Harmful Man Induced Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/globalwarminglie.htm 

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