NWS Melbourne Snow Forecast

[Thomas F. Giella NZ4O]

NWS Melbourne is still forecasting a rain/sleet-ice pellet/snow mix probability later tonight and Saturday. 

NWS Tampa Bay is no longer mentioning any frozen precipitation.

It did snow in the western panhandle of north Florida this morning. Snow was reported at Destin, Mary Esther, Panama City, and Valparaiso, all official NWS observing stations.
 


768   
FXUS62 KMLB 082010  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
310 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2010  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
   
..BLUSTERY WITH COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT  
 
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND   
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...  
 
TONIGHT...FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SPACE COAST ATTM WITH OVERCAST   
COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF AREA ESP BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGHS   
WERE REACHED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.   
 
TONIGHTS FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON AMOUNT OF COOL DOWN AS WELL  
AS THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS @   
12Z SAT BOTH INDICATE TEMPERATURE CURVES REMAINING AT OR BELOW 3C   
BELOW A NEAR SATURATED LAYER ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND SURFACE. THE   
"UNDERRUNNING" PROCESS THROUGH FORCED PARCEL LIFTING IN STRONG COLD  
AIR ADVECTION ARGUES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POST FRONTAL MIXED   
PHASE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WITH A LIGHT RAIN...SLEET   
COMBINATION...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET COMBINATION   
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTH BREVARD NORTHWARD.   
 
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER MAY ASSIST IN   
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/OR FLURRIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH   
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAVE SIDED ON TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE   
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS ABOVE GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THE   
CURRENT FREEZE WATCH IN PLACE FOR FURTHER EVALUATION WITH EVENING   
GUID PKG HOWEVER. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT   
PROMOTING THE EARLIER WIND CHILL ADVISORY WITH 20S COMMON BY   
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.   
 
SATURDAY...A RARE DAY FOR THE SUNSHINE STATE WITH A POSSIBLE EARLY   
MIXTURE OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN/SLEET SNOW EARLY OVER THE   
ORANGE/NORTH BREVARD COUNTY AREA AND LIGHT RAIN SPRINKLES IN THE   
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.   
PRECIPITATION WL COME TO AN END OVER MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON   
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTH INTO   
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE 40S OVER   
NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CONCERN   
ALL DAY AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY REMAINS VALID UNTIL NOON.           
 
SAT NIGHT-TUE NGT...STRONG H50 SHORTWAVES TROUGH WILL ROTATE SEWD   
THRU THE ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SUN MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN   
EARLY TUE. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH SUN/MON MORNINGS   
WITH MOST INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S   
(WITH A FEW L-M 20S IN NORMALLY COLDER SHELTERED SPOTS) WITH BRISK   
NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH CONTINUING. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED WIND   
CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNINGS POSTED STARTING AROUND SUNSET SAT...AND  
FREEZE WARNINGS ARE PRETTY MUCH IMMINENT. COULD SEE HARD FREEZE  
NORTH OF I-4 AGAIN. MAX TEMPS IN THE U40S FAR NORTH AND L-M50S FAR  
SOUTH. FREEZING TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH ECFL OVERNIGHT INTO   
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL...WITH WDSPRD U20S-L30S EXPECTED. DAYTIME   
HIGHS MON REACHING THE MID 50S NORTH-L60S SOUTH...BUT NEXT SURGE   
WILL LKLY BRING YET ANOTHER THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS TUE NGT.  
 
MID-LATE WEEK(PREV.)..MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS BIG DISCREPANCIES   
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. ECMWF DEEPER/SLOWER WRT CUTOFF LOW IN DEEP SW   
VERSUS GFS...BUT MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED LOCAL IMPACT WX WILL REMAIN   
BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE. SOME HEIGHT RISES AND VEERING LIGHT FLOW   
WILL ALLOW FOR THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE A BIT WITH SOME MID/UPPER   
60S BY WED AND MAYBE RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH BY THU. ANY   
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES NOT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF NEXT WEEKEND.  

Happy New year 2010,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, US
nz4o at arrl.net
John 3:16 <><

CWOP #AR692/NZ4O
CoCoRaHs #FL-PK-18
NWS Skywarn #POL-10A

Lakeland FL Weather Observations: http://www.wcflunatall.com/index1.html 
Florida & U.S. Raw Weather Forecasting Resource Links: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o13.htm 
Lakeland, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o22.htm 
Harmful Man Induced Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted: http://www.globalwarminglie.org
NZ4O Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm  

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